Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeGannon Ken Van Dyke 98.9%In testa tra 14 esiti
Previsori
211
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto7 gen 26, 16:13 UTC1 gen 27, 06:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
Manifold MarketsMaduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by which date?
PolymarketNicolás Maduro released from custody by which date?
PolymarketWill Maduro have a trial in USA during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItEnd of 2026, will Tumbles think it was good Trump unilaterally removed Maduro?
Manifold MarketsRegole
As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100
- I will resolve after the end of 2026 based on my own appraisal of the consensus of publicly available, credible reporting at that time (not based on my own speculation).
- I may resolve to partial probabilities if there has been some reporting but it does not rise to the level of consensus or near-certainty in my view.
- I do not plan to get overly granular about the probabilities in this hypothetical partial resolution case - it's gonna be something like "50% we don't find out, 50% this person" or "25% we don't find out, 50% this person, 25% that person" if I go that route.
- I'll be mentally rounding probabilities above 90% or below 10% to 100% and 0% respectively when I resolve.
- Feel free to add answers (I'm making the market partially in the hopes people will do research to find likely candidates I don't know about) but please note that duplicate answers will be ignored (the first one wins), as will any answers that do not refer to a specific, named person (other than "we don't find out").
