Which will be the first year that China successfully launches more orbital rockets than the USA?
CinaOne-Off2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 00:26 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNot before 2040 54.3%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto28 nov 25, 04:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves according to Gunter's Space Page
- Note that the provided linked counts failed launches as well, I am more than open to using a better source.
- My plan atm is just to work out the discrepancy by hand if and when it looks close.
- https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_chr/lau2025.htm
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to the first year after 2025 in which China successfully launches more orbital rockets than the USA.
- (China had more launches during 2018-2021, so those years are excluded from consideration.)
