Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeManifest (June, Berkeley) 100%In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto1 mag 26, 11:17 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
100%
100%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Bitcoin price in 7 days? (100 mana prize, read desc)
Manifold MarketsWill I be offered a quant role before 2030? [read desc]
Manifold Markets⏳Of these 40 events, which will be the first 20 to happen in 2026? (15 DONE)
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRegole
Each option resolves 50% if I attend or YES if I speak.
- Context dump:
- I am Eli Goldfine/@realTomBayes on X
- I already have Manifest tickets
- I am based in NYC
- Predict2026 has offered to cover my travel expenses if I agree to moderate a panel, others are in the works
Mercati aperti
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3K €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volume totale
- 6,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,8K €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume totale
- 18,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 15,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volume totale
- 136,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 247 €
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)?
- Manifold Markets quota Manifest (June, Berkeley) al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)?
- Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc) dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Which prediction market events will I attend/speak at in 2026? (Read desc)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Each option resolves 50% if I attend or YES if I speak.