Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Hawaii's 2nd District?
0.8 pt (24h)PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 202615g
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeDemocratic Party — Jill Tokuda 94.2%-0.8ptIn testa tra 3 esiti
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1
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Variazione 7g
-0.8 pts
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Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
6 ott 26, 05:45 UTC4 nov 26, 12:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
