Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeTina Kotek - Oregon Governor 91.9%In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-1.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto30 set 26, 05:31 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?
KalshiWhich Dems will underperform Kamala?
PolymarketWill Talarico underperform 2024 Kamala in any county?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris be elected governor of California in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris run for California Governor?
KalshiWill Kamala Harris be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves Yes if the listed candidate certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state.Outcome verified from Federal Election Commission, Maine Secretary of State, Oregon Secretary of Stateand other secretaries of states in the listed states.
- A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears.
- Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used.
- Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results.
- Shares are compared unrounded.