Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Not by 2030 60.6%In testa tra 7 esiti
Not by 2030 60.6%Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto5 gen 25, 08:35 UTC1 gen 31, 12:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Alan Moore ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsWill Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNational Book Award for Translated Literature
KalshiNational Book Award for Young People's Literature
KalshiRegole
Mircea Cărtărescu is a renowned Romanian novelist, poet, and essayist who has been consistently mentioned as a top contender for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- He was among the favorites for the 2024 prize and continues to be considered a strong candidate for future awards.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the year in which Mircea Cărtărescu wins the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- If he wins the prize in any year from 2025 through 2030, the corresponding year option will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
- If he does not win the prize by the end of 2030, "the named outcome" will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
