Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNever announces a 2028 presidential run. 51.9%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto19 gen 26, 17:32 UTC30 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Josh Shapiro announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats sweep the Senate, House, and Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExWill the Democrats win the Senate, Republicans win the House, and Democrats win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExRegole
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Kelly makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Kelly or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
Mercati aperti
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3K €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 altri esiti
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets quota Never announces a 2028 presidential run. al 52% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election??
- When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato When will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria