What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released?
IntrattenimentoOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
2031-2035 34.2%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo26 dic 24, 18:31 UTC1 gen 00, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift act in a feature length movie before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out?
Manifold MarketsWill Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year?
KalshiOscars 2027: Best Documentary Feature Film Winner
PolymarketOscar nominees: Best International Feature Film
KalshiRegole
In which calendar year will a film adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (HPMOR) first become publicly available, meeting all of the criteria below?
- Resolution Criteria
- Length: The final product must be at least 60 minutes in total runtime.
- Based on HPMOR: It should be a recognizable adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality.
- Minimal or moderate changes from the text are acceptable (as is typical when adapting from a written work to film).
- Public Release: The complete film must be publicly accessible in some form—e.g. YouTube, a streaming platform, direct download, or even a limited theatrical release.
Mercati aperti
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 342,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 91,2K €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 182,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 90,8K €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+25.1pt47.2%
- No Bond chosen-3.1pt18.9%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 altri esiti
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+8.0pt46%
- Jack Barton-4.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt18%
+27 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,8 Mln €
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 264,6K €
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-53.0pt14%
- Above 50-56.0pt8%
- Above 55-48.0pt2%
+14 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 84,3K €
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Steam: Weekly Top Seller
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- #2 US Spotify Song 2026
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released??
- Manifold Markets quota 2031-2035 al 34% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released??
- What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2100.
- Come viene liquidato What year will a publicly available, feature-length adaptation of HPMOR be released??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: In which calendar year will a film adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (HPMOR) first become publicly available, meeting all of the criteria below?