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  3. What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

PoliticaCommoditiesIA5m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Maine
Maine 15.5%
In testa tra 16 esiti
Previsori

17

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 giorni fa

Obsoleto
2 dic 24, 1:116 dic 26, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Maine16%

Regole

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!

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Regole

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!