Previsione della comunità attuale
Labour > Conservative > Reform > Lib Dem 24.7%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+10.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto12 ott 25, 16:57 UTC1 set 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.
- Answers should have the form A > B > C > D, where A is the party with the most seats, B is the party with the second-highest number of seats, and so on.
- Note that this may not correspond to the four parties with the most votes, due to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system.
- If there is a tie, this market will resolve to PROB, with all answers that are a valid order resolving equally (e.g. if the two largest parties A and B have the same number of seats, and parties C and D are the next largest and also tied, then four answers will resolve to 25% each, i.e. A > B > C > D; B > A > C > D; A > B > D > C; and B > A > D > C).
- Here are the top-four parties by seats for every election since 2000:
- 2024 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > SNP
