Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 74.6%
Previsori
43
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto6 apr 25, 00:18 UTC20 gen 29, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
KalshiWill Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?
Manifold MarketsTrump declares election interference national emergency by which date?
PolymarketTrump declares AGI before the Pope?
Manifold MarketsWill any part of America be under martial law during midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRegole
-Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.
- -Must be generally declared nationwide, or at least across a large region (it's okay if there are specific areas exempted from it, for example).
- -Must be declared by the Trump administration.
- If Trump is impeached and the next president declares martial law this will not resolve YES.
- -Invoking the Insurrection Act does not automatically equate to declaring martial law nationwide, but if the Insurrection Act was invoked and its powers used in such a way that consensus media reporting characterized the deployment as "declaring martial law" then yes, this could resolve YES.
- -Will not be resolved YES on a technicality, like "Trump declares a national day of mourning and martial law is declared across the country for 1 second for some archaic legal purpose" or something silly like this, idk what form this might take, but I reserve the right to not resolve YES based on some technicality like this.
Mercati aperti
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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+38 altri esiti
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Trump declares nationwide martial law??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Trump declares nationwide martial law??
- Trump declares nationwide martial law? dovrebbe risolversi il 20 gennaio 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Trump declares nationwide martial law??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: -Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.