Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80%
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33
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo20 feb 25, 20:59 UTC1 gen 30, 10:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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According to a YouGov poll 52% believe that Trump "definitely" or "probably" will attempt a 3rd term.
- Resolves YES if there is clear and unequivocal evidence that Trump:
- Runs for a 3rd presidential term
- Attempts to subvert the 22nd Amendment in any (serious) way (e.g. through executive orders, trying to change the constitution, legal challenge, or campaigning)
- Prevents a peaceful transition of power
- Tries in some serious way to stay in power past January 20, 2029