Previsione della comunità attuale
No 90.1%
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 24 minuti fa
18 gen 26, 20:26 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?
Manifold MarketsPierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
KalshiWill Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an Italian conservative party remain in office until 2027 ?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026.
- This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year.
- The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process.
- The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.
- Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022.
