Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
One-OffPoliticaElezionePolitica USAElezioni di metà mandato USA 20263m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Democrats control Congress 63.9%In testa tra 4 esiti
Democrats control Congress 63.9%Previsori
98
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-3.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto4 lug 23, 14:47 UTC31 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketWill Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
FutuurRegole
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
