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[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
One-OffChinaGeopolitica3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 77.5%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto27 ago 24, 03:23 UTC2 gen 30, 12:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/27415/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, any of events 1-3 occurs, and 4 also occurs.
- There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, including areas of the current territory ("free area" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data of the ROC.
- There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.
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- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per [Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve [Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030??
- [Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
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