Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
@jim 74%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto20 giu 25, 18:55 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
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PolymarketRegole
This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.
- Each answer represents a CDS for a specific borrower or loan.
- A CDS resolves Yes if the borrower is 45 days late on a loan payment due by the end of 2030.
- If the creditor grants an extension or forgives the loan, it will not be considered late.
- “Yes”, you’re predicting that the borrower will default on at least one loan by the end of 2030.
- “No”, you’re taking the (more likely) position that they will not default by then.