Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
@jim 74%In testa tra 4 esiti
@jim 74%Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo20 giu 25, 18:55 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketPredict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketLargest Company end of October 2026?
PolymarketRoblox hours engaged in Q3
KalshiRegole
This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.
- Each answer represents a CDS for a specific borrower or loan.
- A CDS resolves Yes if the borrower is 45 days late on a loan payment due by the end of 2030.
- If the creditor grants an extension or forgives the loan, it will not be considered late.
- “Yes”, you’re predicting that the borrower will default on at least one loan by the end of 2030.
- “No”, you’re taking the (more likely) position that they will not default by then.