Previsione della comunità attuale
No 94.5%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo19 ott 23, 06:19 UTC2 gen 00, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will humans create a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill someone fall into a black hole by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any black hole smaller than 10^12kg and larger than 1kg be discovered or created before 2100?
Manifold MarketsDo we live inside a black hole?
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Spain?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiRegole
Resolves once I have >99% confidence in the correct answer.
- This could occur because a particle collider created one, because all electrons are black holes, because someone trained a superintelligence on XKCD, or any other reason.
- Refers to the time of resolution, not market creation.