Is Manifold better-calibrated than financial markets on questions about future asset prices?
AzioniOne-Off7aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93.6%
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto10 mar 24, 23:24 UTC1 gen 34, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Sometimes, a Manifold question is isomorphic to a financial asset.
- For example, the question "What will be the price of the S&P 500 in one year?" is identical to an S&P 500 future dated to one year.
- On those sorts of questions, is Manifold better-calibrated than financial markets?
- This question is non-trivial to answer because I don't know how to extract Manifold-style binary predictions from financial markets (or vice versa).
- And even if I did, going through a bunch of markets and calculating their calibration would be some amount of work.
- I will resolve this question whenever someone (a) comes up with a reasonable idea for how to compare Manifold vs. financial markets and (b) actually does the comparison.
