Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 96.7%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 minuti fa
3 feb 23, 04:42 UTC1 gen 01, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Manifold MarketsWill Isaac King set his curtain on fire?
Manifold MarketsIsaac King vs. @Jim - $1000 USD on whether AI will beat Minecraft in under 10 minutes
Manifold MarketsIsaac King's Guessing Game
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 20 - October 27, 2026?
PolymarketPredict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if:
- I find out that @IsaacKing is dead or incapacitated for at least a year AND
- In the year following his incapacitation or death, at least 3 of his markets, or 50% of his markets that closed in that yearlong period (whichever is fewer), are resolved
- Resolves NO if I find out that Isaac is dead/incapacitated but the second YES condition isn't met in the year following his death/incapacitation.
- It doesn't matter who resolves the markets; it could be Isaac's partner, Manifold employees, a community resolution consensus, a computer program, or anything else.
