If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the S&P 500 close 2027 higher than it closed on November 3, 2026?
AzioniOne-OffPoliticaPolitica USAElezione1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 71%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto7 ott 26, 02:05 UTC31 dic 27, 21:00 UTC
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Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index's official closing level on its last trading day of 2027 is higher than its official closing level on November 3, 2026 (Election Day).
- Resolves NO if it is equal or lower.
- Uses S&P Dow Jones Indices' published closes.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
