If Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USA2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 72.5%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto7 ott 26, 02:13 UTC3 gen 29, 17:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach Donald Trump before January 3, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the House impeach Trump again?
PredictItAny Senate-confirmed Cabinet member impeached this Presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWho will the House impeach first before 2028?
KalshiRegole
Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. House adopts at least one article of impeachment against a sitting or former Cabinet-level official (the Vice President, the head of an executive department, or another official with Cabinet rank) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- Impeaching the President does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
