How many seats will our model's most-likely Senate map be wrong on?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 202628gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2 22%In testa tra 12 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto26 giu 26, 04:26 UTC3 nov 26, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
[image]This market scores our statistical model's current most-likely U.S. Senate map — the modal projected winner of each of the 35 seats up in 2026.
- Each outcome is the exact number of those 35 seats the map gets wrong once the election resolves (0 through 10, plus "the named outcome").
- It is the self-calibration counterpart to the two third-party map markets:
- 53R map (@EnopoletusHarding)
- 53D map (@Jack1)
- The model expects ~5.6 of its own best-guess calls to be wrong — the election is genuinely uncertain, and even the most-likely map has real exposure to a correlated national swing (a fat "the named outcome" tail).