Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93.8%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto24 nov 23, 17:25 UTC1 gen 40, 08:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWill the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?
Manifold MarketsDid HIV come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Lyme disease is no longer a subject of active political contention, and motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down.
- I will be conferring with the community extensivly before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- (For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existance of a few doubts here and there.)
- If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
Mercati aperti
SportsKALSHISabalenka vs Noskova
- Aryna Sabalenka+6.0pt74.5%
- Linda Noskova-5.0pt25.5%
- Volume totale
- 12,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 11,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETCounter-Strike: G2 vs Astralis (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A
- 2 Winner+33.0pt100%
- O/U 2.5 Games+57.0pt100%
- 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5)100%
+29 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona18.1%
- Arsenal15.2%
- Paris Saint-Germain13.3%
+33 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24 Mln €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Quarter Finals match
- Aryna Sabalenka72.6%
- Linda Noskova27.4%
- Volume totale
- 15,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,9 Mln €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz57%
- Alexander Zverev+5.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton9%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,9 Mln €
KALSHIClub Brugge vs Aston Villa
- Aston Villa+49.0pt87.1%
- Tie-17.0pt9.9%
- Club Brugge-31.0pt3%
- Volume totale
- 2,1 Mln €
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF
- US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova
- Tiafoe vs Michelsen
- Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
- United Arab Emirates vs Bangladesh
- 2027 Pro Football Champion
- MLB: Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers (Sep 7, 2026)
- MLB: New York Mets vs Miami Marlins (Sep 7, 2026)
- Amgen Irish Open Winner
- MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals (Sep 7, 2026)
- Real Madrid vs Inter
- US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 94% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory??
- Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2040.
- Come viene liquidato Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.