Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
22 ott 26, 21:06 UTC31 dic 28, 22:02 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Ilhan Omar be a US House member on 1 Feb 2029?
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves according to a consensus of popular reporting at the end of 2028 (or earlier, if this consensus arises).
- If there's an open debate and reporting disagrees on the subject, or even if reporting refuses to touch this story with a 10-foot pole but most traders on here have convincing evidence supporting or rejecting this thesis, then this may resolve according to my judgment, consulting with other Manifold moderators / superusers / expert forecasters.
- I will obviously not bet on this market.
- Yes, half-siblings count.
- Resolves to the spirit of the question.
- If her ex-husband was, say, her adopted brother, but DNA tests show no relation, his would still count as well.