Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 99%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 26, 00:52 UTC1 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Dan Goldman win the New York 10th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiTexas Senate winner?
KalshiTexas Governor winner?
KalshiRegole
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Dan Goldman loses his primary in NY-10" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator may resolve early if reminded for cut and dry cases like this, rather than waiting for Yglesias' January 2027 review post.