Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91.7%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto27 dic 25, 00:08 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
China to announce cap on zinc by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CBMM trailing 12-month FeNb output exceed 155 kt as of September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CBMM trailing 12-month FeNb output exceed 175 kt as of September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CBMM trailing 12-month FeNb output exceed 110 kt as of September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill nuclear energy generate more than 67,000 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in the US during August 2026? (Power plants) (Reactors) (Grid output) (Clean power)?
ForecastExWill nuclear energy generate more than 68,000 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in the US during August 2026? (Power plants) (Reactors) (Grid output) (Clean power)?
ForecastExRegole
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese government (e.g., NDRC, MIIT, State Council, or other central authority) officially announces or implements a hard national ceiling on refined lead smelting/refining capacity or annual production output.
- This must be modeled after the aluminum sector's 45 million tonne annual capacity cap (introduced in 2017), meaning:
- An explicit numerical limit (e.g., X million tonnes per year) on total national capacity or output.
- Enforced via strict controls like "capacity replacement" rules (new capacity only if equal/old capacity is retired), bans on net new additions, or direct production quotas.
- YES examples:
