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  3. Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)
Manifold Markets

Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PoliticaOne-OffElezioneSportSoccerLatin America1m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
Lula 85.9%
In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori

7

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 giorni fa

Obsoleto
26 feb 26, 12:414 ago 26, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Lula86%

Regole

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

Mercati Correlati

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

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Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

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Peru Presidential election winner?

Peru Presidential election winner?

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Roberto Sánchez: 3%KalshiKALSHI
Peru Presidential Election Runoff: JNE certifies results by…?

Peru Presidential Election Runoff: JNE certifies results by…?

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Peru presidential election runoff margin of victory?

Peru presidential election runoff margin of victory?

32,3 €
Roberto Sánchez, 0-3%: 3%KalshiKALSHI
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

1,7 €
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 6%KalshiKALSHI

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,634.59+2.05%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.46%EthereumETH$1,649.42+1.21%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.56%XRPXRP$1.12+0.17%BNBBNB$594.88+1.46%

Notizie Correlate

FIFA names Kraken official crypto exchange supporter for 2026 World CupCrypto NewsRussia election odds hold with United Russia leading at ~54.5%Blockchain.NewsPeru 2nd Round Bet Focus Narrows to Fujimori Narrow VictoryBlockchain.NewsSpain Dominates World Cup Knockout Trajectory, Polymarket Shows 98% OddsBlockchain.NewsBurnham Favored in Makerfield By-Election as Markets React to Rising OddsBlockchain.NewsCrypto PACs Shape Bets on Peru’s 2026 RaceBlockchain.News

Regole

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Manifold Markets
  • Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
  • Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
  • The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
  • If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.