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Brazil 2026 Election: Who Leads the Polling Average Two Months Before the Election? (1st Round)

PoliticaOne-OffElezione Sport Soccer Latin America7g

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Lula 91.4%

In testa tra 4 esiti

Previsori

8

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 17 minuti fa

26 feb 26, 12:414 ago 26, 23:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Lula91%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.

Trend del volume

$50

14 lug2g di dati15 lug

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Attivi in questi argomenti

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Regole

At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.
Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %).
The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.
If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.