Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 90%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+2.9 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto13 gen 26, 21:08 UTC4 ott 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
PolymarketBrazil 2026 Election: Will all third-way candidates stay below 10%?
Manifold MarketsWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
PolymarketBrazil 2026 Election: Who will participate in at least one televised Brazilian presidential debate?
Manifold MarketsBrazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio de Janeiro (RJ)?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- A candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round to win outright.
- If no candidate does so, the top two candidates head to a runoff.
- The first round is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if needed.
- Resolution will be based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) at https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/.
- A candidate resolves "Yes" if they advance to the runoff or win outright in the first round; otherwise "No".
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8K €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,6 Mln €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 984,1K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff??
- Manifold Markets quota Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva al 90% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff??
- Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? dovrebbe risolversi il 4 ottobre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria