Will the U.S. and Iran hold a China-mediated meeting before Feb 1, 2027?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAMedio OrienteCina3m
KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPunto medio del book selezionato
No · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Prezzo registrato
No 84.5%
No 84.5%Qualità del mercato
40 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
4,4 €
Open interest
159,9 USD
Open interest bassoBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
19 ott 26, 15:35 UTC1 feb 27, 04:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
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- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · No
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
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Si regola tramite:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The meeting must be deliberately convened for diplomacy or negotiation, and each country must be represented by at least one senior official who actively participates in an official capacity. It need not produce an agreement, joint statement, or commitment to further talks. Only the part of a meeting held after Issuance counts; a meeting held entirely before Issuance does not qualify, even if reported afterward. A senior official is a head of state or government, vice president, foreign minister or other cabinet-rank minister, head of a national security council, presiding officer of a national legislature, special envoy, or anyone the head of state or government designates to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Officials whose mandate is limited to technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, or preparatory discussions do not qualify. Qualifying officials include, without limitation, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner for the United States, and Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for Iran. The meeting may be direct, with the officials meeting face to face in person (interpreters permitted), or indirect, with both delegations physically present in the same facility, venue, or city for a single organized round of talks and an intermediary authorized by both governments relaying communications between them on the same calendar day in the meeting location's local time. The meeting must be mediated by China, meaning the Chinese government hosts or convenes it, or a Chinese government official (for example Foreign Minister Wang Yi or Special Envoy Zhai Jun) takes part as a mediator or intermediary between the two delegations. A meeting mediated only by other parties, or one that Chinese officials merely observe or attend without a mediating role, does not qualify. Proposing, encouraging, or initiating talks that another country hosts and mediates does not count as China convening them. Hosting a broader summit or conference alongside which the two sides meet does not by itself count as hosting the meeting. Phone or video contact, chance encounters, and exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities do not qualify, nor do the proceedings of standing international organizations or recurring multilateral summits such as the UN General Assembly. A separately arranged bilateral meeting held alongside such an event may qualify. A meeting does not qualify if either country is represented only by persons lacking authority to conduct diplomacy or negotiation on its behalf. The incidental presence of supporting staff does not by itself disqualify a meeting.
Regole per ogni esito
- No
- La regola esatta di questo esito non è disponibile.
- Yes
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