Will any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?
One-OffPoliticaElezionePolitica USA16g
KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPunto medio del book selezionato
No · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
—
Prezzo registrato
No 57.5%
No 57.5%Qualità del mercato
44 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Open interest
2,1K USD
Open interest bassoBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
15 gen 26, 15:00 UTC10 nov 26, 15:00 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · No
Caricamento del book selezionato…
—
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "Nullius in Verba: 3rd party evidence for Nect..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "We need 3rd party Training-Run Assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there a 3rd party candidate win at least one state in the US presidential election before the US adds a 51st state
Manifold MarketsHow many House and Senate seats will Dems control after the 2026 midterms?
PredictItWill Democrats sweep the New England House and Senate races?
KalshiRegole
La regola esatta di questo esito non è disponibile.
- For the purposes of this market, any candidate that is not officially affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered independent or third party, regardless of whether they join a party’s caucus or conference after the election. For example, Senator Bernie Sanders would be considered an independent candidate. Third party or independent candidates who accept the endorsement of the Democratic or Republican party will still count if they are not officially affiliated or do not explicitly represent either of the two major parties. However, candidates that are officially affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will NOT count, even if they have the formal support of other third parties (such as the Working Families or Conservative parties in New York). The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Regole per ogni esito
- No
- La regola esatta di questo esito non è disponibile.
- Yes
- La regola esatta di questo esito non è disponibile.
