KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiestoDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoletiPrezzo non significativo
Dati al 6 nov 2026, 12:31 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Punto medio del book selezionato
At least 1% · —
Caricamento del book selezionato…
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Prezzo registrato
At least 1% 95.5%In testa tra 8 esiti
At least 1% 95.5%Qualità del mercato
22 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Open interest
0 USD
Open interest sconosciutoBid / Ask
— / —
At least 1%Spread
—
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo6 nov 26, 00:00 UTC8 gen 29, 14:59 UTC
Il grafico e le variazioni mostrano probabilità storiche salvate, non il book selezionato in tempo reale.
Trend
Riga selezionata: punto medio del book. Altre righe: riferimenti salvati, eventualmente normalizzati; le variazioni a 24h usano lo storico salvato.
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Profondità di mercato · At least 1%
Caricamento del book selezionato…
—
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a third party candidate win the 2028 USA presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an independent or third-party candidate win a state?
KalshiWill a third party get more than 25% of the popular vote in a presidential election no later than 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich states will join the National Popular Vote Compact?
KalshiRegole
If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Federal Election Commission
- Third-party votes are all votes cast for President other than votes for the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee. They include votes for independent and minor-party candidates, write-in votes, and votes for "None of these candidates." A nominee is the candidate the Democratic Party or the Republican Party nominated for President. A nominee's votes on every ballot line are combined, including a line of another party (such as New York's Conservative and Working Families lines), and are not third-party votes. The third-party share is the third-party votes divided by the total votes cast for President in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, using the Federal Election Commission's "Official Presidential General Election Results" for the Nov 7, 2028 election: (Total Votes minus the Democratic nominee's total minus the Republican nominee's total) divided by Total Votes. Blank and spoiled ballots are not counted. Votes the report does not include, such as write-ins a state does not tally, are not added from other sources. In a state that uses ranked-choice voting, first-round votes are used. The first version of the report that the FEC publishes is used; later revisions do not count. Each state's figures are its final certified results, including a recount completed before certification. If the FEC has not published the report by expiration, the sum of the states' and the District of Columbia's final certified results is used.
Regole per ogni esito
- At least 1%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 1.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 1.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2.5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 2.5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 3%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 3% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 4% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 5% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 7%
- If the third-party share of the national popular vote for President is at least 7% in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
