Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

0.4% (24h)One-OffChina5m

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Before Jan 1, 2027 7%-0.4%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Qualita del mercato

56 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

215,5 €

Liquidità

222,9K €

Alta liquidità

Bid / Ask

4.5% / 7.0%

Spread

55.6%

Spread ampio

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 24 minuti fa

7 gen 26, 15:001 gen 27, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Before Jul 1, 2026

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Before Jan 1, 20277%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trend del volume

$245

2 lug24g di dati26 lug

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Regole

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

0.4% (24h)One-OffChina5m

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Before Jan 1, 2027 7%-0.4%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Qualita del mercato

56 / 100

Qualità media

Volume 24h

215,5 €

Liquidità

222,9K €

Alta liquidità

Bid / Ask

4.5% / 7.0%

Spread

55.6%

Spread ampio

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 24 minuti fa

7 gen 26, 15:001 gen 27, 4:59

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Before Jul 1, 2026

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Before Jan 1, 20277%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trend del volume

$245

2 lug24g di dati26 lug

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224,8K €

Match Winner: 100%

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Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

65,3K €

O/U 2.5 Games: 74%

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

30,4K €

Alibaba: 75%

POLYMARKET

Chengdu Rongcheng vs Beijing Guoan

23,5K €

Chengdu Rongcheng: 48%

KALSHI

Bilibili Gaming vs. Nova Esports

22,3K €

Nova Esports: 52%

KALSHI

Best Chinese AI Company this week

7,4K €

Moonshot: 6%

KALSHI

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$64,487.52+0.69%

EthereumETH$1,886.26+1.53%

SolanaSOL$74.99+1.48%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.99%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.63%

BNBBNB$570.56+0.84%

Notizie Correlate

China completes first digital yuan payment to SingaporeCrypto News

Trump’s CLARITY push is now about beating ChinaCrypto News

Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News

Polymarket Taiwan 2026 invasion Yes odds drop to 3.75% on $38.6M volumeBlockchain.News

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Chinese Prosecutors Float Treating Crypto Mixer, Privacy Coin Use as Sign of Money LaunderingDecrypt

Regole

State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify.
The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region.
A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.