KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
At least 3.0°C 48.1%In testa tra 5 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
56 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
20,7 €
Liquidità
23,7K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
24 giu 26, 23:00 UTC15 ago 27, 14:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWill this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketWill global peak oil production occur before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:NOAA Climate Prediction Center
- The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary).
- For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value.
- The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period.
- However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
- If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is between 1.5 and 1.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Mercati aperti
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 232,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 227,3K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 186,1K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Volume totale
- 66,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 28,6K €
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season??
- Kalshi quota At least 3.0°C al 48% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season??
- What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? dovrebbe risolversi il 15 agosto 2027.
- Come viene liquidato What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.