PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Sì 93%+0.6pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,6K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
91.6% / 94.0%
Spread
2.4 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
+0.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
24 lug 26, 16:36 UTC1 apr 27, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season.
- An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
- This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season.
- If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
Mercati aperti
Weather
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 232,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 227,3K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 186,1K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Volume totale
- 66,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 28,6K €
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)??
- Polymarket quota Yes al 93% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)??
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 aprile 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.