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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Politica
  3. Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory
Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory

3.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticaElezioneUS Politics10m
KalshiKalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
Karen Bass, 4-8%
Karen Bass, 4-8% 99%+3.0%
In testa tra 13 esiti
Qualita del mercato

79 / 100

Alta qualità
Volume 24h

889,4 €

Liquidità

2,5K €

Liquidità media
Bid / Ask

99.0% / 100.0%

Spread

1.0%

Spread stretto
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 8 minuti fa

27 apr 26, 19:0028 apr 27, 14:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Karen Bass, 4-8%99%

Regole

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.

Mercati Correlati

Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary?

Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary?

163,4 €
Graham Platner, ≥50%: 99%KalshiKALSHI
Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

106,7 €
Abdul El-Sayed, 6-9%: 22%KalshiKALSHI
Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?

77,6 €
Josh Turek, 20-25%: 1%KalshiKALSHI
South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

South Carolina Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

66,5 €
Lindsey Graham, 25-30%: 99%KalshiKALSHI
South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin of victory? (1st Round)

South Carolina Republican Governor primary margin of victory? (1st Round)

46 €
Pamela Evette, 0-5%: 98%KalshiKALSHI
Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

Maine Democratic Governor primary: margin of victory (final round)

38,9 €
Shenna Bellows wins: 20%KalshiKALSHI

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,901.58+2.81%EthereumETH$1,659.28+2.18%SolanaSOL$65.35+2.30%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+2.01%XRPXRP$1.12+0.96%BNBBNB$596.68+2.07%

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Regole

If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 0% to 4%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
  • For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Karen Bass minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For raw votes: the total votes received by Karen Bass minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
  • For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Karen Bass wins, or the electoral votes received by Karen Bass minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Karen Bass does not.
  • Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.