Colombian presidential election first round winner?

74.4% (24h)Politica

KalshiChiusoVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione

Questo mercato si è risolto: Abelardo de la Espriella (96%)

Risolto: 1 giu 2026, 13:18

Esito Vincente

Abelardo de la Espriella

A 7 giorni

—

A 24 ore

24%

Sorpresa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Abelardo de la Espriella 96%+74.4%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Qualita del mercato

79 / 100

Alta qualità

Volume 24h

3,1K €

Liquidità

4K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

96.3% / 98.7%

Spread

2.5%

Spread stretto

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 12 giorni fa

Obsoleto

5 mar 26, 15:0031 mag 27, 14:00

Cronologia delle Probabilità

Abelardo de la Espriella96%

Iván Cepeda Castro61%

Esito24hProbabilità

Abelardo de la Espriella

+74.4%

96%

Iván Cepeda Castro

-76.3%

Paloma Valencia

Sergio Fajardo

Daniel Quintero

Questo mercato è chiuso. Il trading simulato è disponibile solo sui mercati aperti.

Regole

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

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Regole

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

Colombian presidential election first round winner?

74.4% (24h)Politica

KalshiChiusoVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione

Questo mercato si è risolto: Abelardo de la Espriella (96%)

Risolto: 1 giu 2026, 13:18

Esito Vincente

Abelardo de la Espriella

A 7 giorni

—

A 24 ore

24%

Sorpresa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Abelardo de la Espriella 96%+74.4%

In testa tra 5 esiti

Qualita del mercato

79 / 100

Alta qualità

Volume 24h

3,1K €

Liquidità

4K €

Liquidità media

Bid / Ask

96.3% / 98.7%

Spread

2.5%

Spread stretto

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 12 giorni fa

Obsoleto

5 mar 26, 15:0031 mag 27, 14:00

Cronologia delle Probabilità

Abelardo de la Espriella96%

Iván Cepeda Castro61%

Esito24hProbabilità

Abelardo de la Espriella

+74.4%

96%

Iván Cepeda Castro

-76.3%

Paloma Valencia

Sergio Fajardo

Daniel Quintero

Questo mercato è chiuso. Il trading simulato è disponibile solo sui mercati aperti.

Regole

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

Mercati Correlati

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4,1 Mln €

July 31: 86%

POLYMARKET

Next French Presidential Election

924,8K €

Jordan Bardella: 27%

POLYMARKET

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

847,8K €

Gavin Newsom: 23%

POLYMARKET

Massachusetts Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?

15,1K €

Democratic Party: 96.6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

New York Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?

9,2K €

Democratic Party: 92.1%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Starmer out before July?

9,1K €

Sì: 17.2%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$64,159.92+1.22%

SolanaSOL$67.95+1.78%

EthereumETH$1,679.60+0.88%

AvalancheAVAX$6.68+1.22%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0883+1.50%

Notizie Correlate

Former Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto News

Congress nears final vote on $70 billion immigration funding packageCrypto News

Trump unlikely to exit by June 30, Polymarket odds swing sideBlockchain.News

House GOP eyes summer vote on prediction market restrictions for lawmakersCointelegraph

Crypto Tycoons Fund Reform UK with $12.5M in Q1 DonationsBlockchain.News

Crypto billionaires bankroll Nigel Farage's pro-crypto partyCointelegraph

Regole

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.