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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Politica
  3. Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

14.8% (24h)Politica
KalshiKalshiChiusoVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissione

Questo mercato si è risolto: No (100%)

Risolto: 1 giu 2026, 13:17

Esito Vincente

No

A 7 giorni

—

A 24 ore

89%

Consenso
Probabilità implicita attuale
Sì
Sì 0%-14.8%
Qualita del mercato

36 / 100

Bassa qualità
Volume 24h

608,6 €

Liquidità

727,5 €

Bassa liquidità
Bid / Ask

0.2% / 0.7%

Spread

250.0%

Spread ampio
Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 11 giorni fa

Obsoleto
5 mar 26, 15:0031 mag 27, 14:00

Cronologia delle Probabilità

Yes0%
No100%
0%25%50%75%100%30 mag31 mag1 giu
Esito24hProbabilità
Sì
Sì
-14.8%
0%
No
No
100%

Questo mercato è chiuso. Il trading simulato è disponibile solo sui mercati aperti.

Regole

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.

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Attivi in questi argomenti

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Regole

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.