Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Scotland independent from the UK by the end of 2026??

Futuur quota No al 92% al 30 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Scotland independent from the UK by the end of 2026??

Scotland independent from the UK by the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.

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Scotland independent from the UK by the end of 2026?

One-OffEuropa2m

FutuurVerifica disponibilitàDati di risoluzione verificati

Probabilità implicita attuale

No 92%

Qualità del mercato

31 / 100

Bassa qualità

Volume 24h

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Liquidità

348,1 €

Bassa liquidità

Trader

Commenti

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 1 minuto fa

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This event predicts whether Scotland will formally become an independent state separate from the United Kingdom at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).

The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official UK and Scottish government acts or international recognition confirming independence.
If Scotland formally becomes an independent state during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Referendums, negotiations, or legislative steps that do not result in formal independence taking effect will not count.
If official documentation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.

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