PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 90.1%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
10,5 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
9.0% / 10.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 minutes
19 août 26, 22:40 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiBy end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
- A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029.
- Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
- The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays.
- As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00).
- The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Marchés ouverts
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 586,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 568,4 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Volume total
- 108,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 108,2 k €
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 90% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by which date? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.