Ce marché s'est résolu: No
Résolu: 4 févr. 2024, 01:01
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Non 100%
Qualite du marche
15 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
—
Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 123 jours
Obsolète6 déc. 23, 23:1631 déc. 23, 0:00
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Règles
If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only models accessible to the public (e.g. developers or public sign-ups) will count for this market.
- If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that could reach the top of the leaderboard but is not yet ranked at year's end due to time required for evaluation, this market's resolution may be delayed until February 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- If at this point the resolution source still does not list the new model's ELO, the underlying script(s) will be used to determine whether google's model tops the leaderboard.
- Note that the model must be released by the resolution date to be considered (if they release a new version of the model after the resolution date, it will not be considered for this market).
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T+0.3pt98%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 105,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhich company does Ox Alpha belong to?
- Z.ai+12.2pt95%
- Google-2.1pt4%
- Nvidia+0.3pt1%
+20 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhat will Zoom say during their next earnings call?
- Enterprise+3.0pt99%
- Agentic+16.0pt99%
- Contact Center+6.0pt99%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt65.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt11.8%
- Grok+0.4pt10.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 8 M €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- SpaceX-7.5pt58.2%
- Anthropic+4.5pt40.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt1%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba+0.7pt95%
- Z.ai+0.3pt4%
- Moonshot-0.6pt1%
+8 résultats de plus
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- XRP price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- Highest temperature in Miami on August 25, 2026?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- TOUR Championship Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 100% au 24 avril 2026.
- Quand Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2023.
- Comment Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".