Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
6.5 pts (24h)WeatherOne-Off3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Florida 21%-20.5ptEn tête parmi 19 options
Qualité du marché
39 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
408,9 €
Liquidité
4,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
15.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
18 août 26, 20:31 UTC8 déc. 26, 04:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsWill 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply.
- Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
- A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall.
- The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline.
- If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".