PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 93%
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
1,3 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
6.1% / 7.0%
Écart
0.9 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
1
Variation 7j
-7.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
31 déc. 25, 17:12 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
ForecastExWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsWill 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiRègles
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement.
- However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Marchés ouverts
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
- 32°C+69.0pt100%
- 27°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 28°C-0.3pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 154,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 148,6 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-7.0pt59%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 92,3 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 8?
- 19°C+54.0pt98%
- 20°C-31.0pt2%
- 16°C or below-0.2pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above63.8%
- 88° to 89°19.1%
- 86° to 87°13.3%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 84,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 79,3 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
- 25°C+94.5pt100%
- 19°C or below-3.0pt0%
- 20°C-6.0pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
- 29°C+70.5pt100%
- 26°C or below-8.4pt0%
- 27°C-10.4pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? ?
- Polymarket cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Polymarket règle ce marché comme suit : For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.