Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75.7%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète28 juil. 26, 00:12 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?
Manifold MarketsWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketWill a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.