PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
October 1 - 31, 51.5%-1.5ptEn tête parmi 4 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
66 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
1,7 k €
Liquidité
14,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
3.4 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-17.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
6 sept. 26, 16:26 UTC1 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiWhich month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before January 1, 2027?
ForecastExWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before October 1, 2026?
ForecastExOn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
- A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
- The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold.
- A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
- If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
- The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).