PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
October 1 - 31, 55.1%+10.5ptEn tête parmi 5 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
65 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
8 k €
Liquidité
3,9 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
4.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
4
Variation 7j
-15.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
10 août 26, 15:38 UTC1 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
0%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
PolymarketWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
KalshiWhich month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
PolymarketWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before January 1, 2027?
ForecastExWill traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal before October 1, 2026?
ForecastExOn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS.
- A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
- "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC.
- Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
- The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold.
- A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.