Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Géopolitique
PolymarketFerméVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché est fermé et en attente d'une résolution confirmée.
Données de résolution non vérifiées
Ce résultat est inféré ou n'est pas appuyé par des preuves de règlement de niveau fournisseur.
Probabilité implicite actuelleDecember 31 100%+2.0ptEn tête parmi 9 options
Qualite du marche
49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
20,2 M €
Liquidité
4,9 M €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread serréVariation 7j
+9.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 93 jours
Obsolète28 févr. 26, 14:4031 mars 26, 0:00
Chronologie des Probabilités
December 3199%
April 3096%
April 15100%
June 30100%
May 15100%
April 7100%
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Ce marché est clôturé. Le trading fictif n'est disponible que sur les marchés ouverts.
Comparer les plateformes· December 31
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketCette pageMeilleur global | Faible | 100% | — | 20,2 M € | 4,9 M € | il y a 93 jours | |
 Manifold Markets80% de correspondance · auto | — | 100% | — | — | — | il y a 95 jours | Ouvrir → |
Également disponible sur Manifold Markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by which date?
Fermés
100%
100%
100%
+3 résultats de plus
Prévision communautaire34 prévisionnistesType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.