How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
1.3 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesAucune cotation en direct
Données au 27 juil. 2026, 16:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle4-6 79%-1.1ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Qualite du marche
32 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidité
3,8 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
2.8% / 20.8%
Spread
18.0 pt
Spread largeVariation 7j
-5.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
4-679%
Comparer les plateformes· 3
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMeilleur global80% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 29% | 0pt | 88,2 € | 178,6 k € | il y a 17 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| PolymarketCette page | Faible | 79% | +50pt | 0 € | 3,8 k € | il y a 17 minutes |
Également disponible sur Kalshi
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
1.9 pts3mo
-1.0pt68.4%
+3.0pt29.6%
-1.9pt2%
+1 résultats de plus
71 • Qualité moyenneSpread serréLiquidité élevéeAmbiguïté élevée
Volume total376,3 k €
Volume 24h88,2 €
KALSHIRègles
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$633 juil.19j de données27 juil.
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.