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Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 29 oct. 2026, 13:06 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Top 10 99%En tête parmi 4 options
Top 10 99%Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
13,3 k €
Liquidité
6,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneIntérêt ouvert
3,4 k $US
Écart
2.1 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète28 oct. 26, 21:52 UTC1 juil. 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Top 1099%
Top 598%
Top 197%
Top 397%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketKimi K3.1 Pro: Text Arena Rank Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.