Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.5%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
14 oct. 26, 23:43 UTC31 oct. 26, 23:41 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Zvi write a full capabilities report on Gemini 4 Argon?
Manifold MarketsNext Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by which date?
Polymarket60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
KalshiWhich celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?
KalshiWill Reckless Ben's video on Bricks and Minifigs have 10 million or more views before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many of the 50 celebrities on DeathList 2026 will pass away?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves to YES if Zvi writes a post centered around Muse Wonder before the deadline.
- Resolves to NO if Zvi does not write such a post.
- Market will not resolve early to avoid leaking information, except if the post is up and this thus resolves YES.