Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 67.4%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 36 minutes
11 sept. 24, 14:06 UTC12 sept. 34, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
Manifold MarketsWill tipping your landlord be normalized within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWill we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRègles
As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.
- If Scott does not publicly express an opinion before the resolution date, I will email him to get his take.
- If he cannot or will not answer, and the resolution is unclear, I will do my best to get expert opinions.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 944,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- 620 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536 k €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade doit être résolu le 12 septembre 2034.
- Comment Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As judged by Scott Aaronson https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8310.